CROSS RIVER STATE, VOTING SIGNALS FOR PRESIDENT JONATHAN

 

  With just few days to the general election, UBONG INYANG, examines the strength and weaknesses of the two major Presidential candidates for the March 28 elections-President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) and General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress(APC) vis-à-vis their chances in Cross River.

An Air of uncertainty currently pervades the political scene of Cross River State with regards to who gets the upper hand in the March 28 Presidential Contest between President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic party(PDP) and Major General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress(APC). In fact, the people of the state cannot really predict where the pendulum will swing with regards to the contest which will no doubt be one of the fiercest in the political history of Nigeria.

Unlike in 2011 where the people of Cross River voted massively for Jonathan based on ethnic sentiments. It is a different ball game this time. A lot of things have changed especially with Jonathan having little or no project to showcase in the state. He is most likely to lose a large chunk of votes in Cross River which is touted as a core PDP state.

What the people of Cross River are holding against the President is his failure to rehabilitate federal roads in the state which had been in a very deplorable condition for years. One of such roads is the Calabar-Itu road which has remained virtually impassable for years.
The only federal project ever inaugurated by Jonathan in Cross River, in his over 6 years reign as President of Nigeria is the Jonathan-Ebele bypass in Calabar municipality which was commissioned during his Presidential rally in Calabar. Some analysts say the project is too petty for a people of who gave him more than a 100 percent vote during the 2011 Presidential elections.

However, not much has changed since the general election was postponed; instead there are dangerous signals that President Jonathan may not secure a 100 per cent vote in Cross River as was the case in 2011.

A lot of factors are however responsible for the sudden lost of political patronage from the people of Cross River. Besides his failure to address the developmental needs of the people, there is also heightened disenchantment by the people against one of the President’s foot soldiers, the Governor of the State, Senator Liyel Imoke for allegedly scheming out some of their preferred candidate during the last primaries of the PDP. Some people are still raising
dust over the outcome of the primaries and have vowed to launch a protest vote against the President for allowing Governor Imoke to have his way. This according to some political analysts will be one of the greatest undoing of the PDP in respect of the Presidential election in
the State.

Although during the Presidential rally of the PDP in the state, Governor Imoke had promised Jonathan that the state will deliver more than 1.1 million votes to him. As it stands, the possibility of achieving that is very slim. There is every likelihood that the votes will split between him (Jonathan) and General Muhammad Buhari even as the PDP in the state is not seen to be campaigning massively for Jonathan. The signals from Cross River show that even if Jonathanwins, it would be with a slim margin. But some people believe that in Cross River it is PDP all the way and that Jonathan will surely coast
home to victory.

Meanwhile, President Jonathan during his campaign rally in Calabar, the State capital did not promise to fix these deplorable federal roads which is what the people of Cross River were itching to hear from a man they call their brother. The only promise he made was to empower the youths and construct a railway line from Lagos to the prestigious Obudu ranch resort. He did however receive loud ovation for those promises.

But President Jonathan’s major challenger in the race, General Buhari was emphatic on what he would do for the people to revitalize agriculture and enhance the people’s standard of living. On the day he visited Cross River, both the young and old gave him a heroic welcome.
He was received with open arms thereby giving credence to the prediction that he may get half the votes from Cross River. He promised to fix the Calabar-Itu road and other federal roads if
elected into office. This promise triggered loud ovation from Cross Riverians who saw it as a major need of the people.

Since the shifting of the elections, his foot soldiers in Cross River have not rested on their oars. They kept exploring the length and breadth of the state to make Cross Riverians see reasons why they should vote for change. While some people are still having reservations as to the credibility of the retired military dictator, some have embraced wholeheartedly embraced the so-called change he is promising.

Until last week, the APC used the issue of delay in payment of salaries as a major campaign issue. The party through a statement from the office of the National Vice Chairman, South- South, Prince Hilliard Eta took a swipe on the PDP led government for alleged insensitivity to the welfare of workers.

The Party said that ''much as the Cross River workers and by extension the electorate were expecting to hear from the PDP why it tied workers to a tortuous stake through salary delay, fringe benefits denials and various ill treatments as well as the way out of the malady, the PDP
deliberately ignored the labour-organized interactive session with parties candidates which offered a robust opportunity to explain what the worker's interest would be in the
coming dispensation.''

‘‘Commonsense should however dictate to all Cross Riverians that the PDP has nothing to offer the masses albeit workers hence its decision to shield its candidate from the session.''

The statement also urged the leadership of the NLC not to compromise its desire for change adding that '' the option of calling out workers on strike in reaction to obnoxious government policies concerning workers is just a potent weapon for negotiating a better package which
should be employed consistently if labour must cause a change of worker's plight.''


The State Chairman of the APC, Pastor Usani Usani has been on his feet canvassing for votes for Buhari. In fact, since the postponement of the election, the APC in the state had embarked on door-to-door campaigns across the state all in a bid to canvass support for all its
candidates, especially its Presidential and governorship candidates, Mr. Odey Ochicha and General Buhari.
The PDP and APC gubernatorial candidates who were supposed to boost the campaign of the presidential candidates are trying very hard toconvince the populace. But the foot soldiers need money to go round the entire state even as the senatorial candidates of both parties are
putting finishing touches to their campaign strategies. For instance, Senator Bassey Otu of the labour Party who is seeking re-election is massively campaigning for Jonathan. His supporters are seen everywhere with the President’s posters and banners. This is an indication that
in Cross River Southern Senatorial district where Otu represents, Jonathan is most likely to get the upper hand. This is because of Otu’s popularity. This is beside the robust campaign for Jonathan by other Senatorial candidates of the PDP

Nevertheless, Cross River state at the moment is no longer seen as a stronghold of the PDP. This is due to the rising tide of opposition which has crept into the political scenario of the state.
There is every likelihood that even the Governorship position will be keenly contested by three political parties- The Peoples Democratic Party(PDP), labour Party(LP) and the All Progressives Congress(APC).
The PDP may however have an upper hand on March 28 if Imoke continues to make moves towards clearing salary arrears. This is not to say that both parties may forget the problem of funding as the economy bites harder.

As the campaigns are gradually getting to a climax with the local coordinators for Jonathan struggling to make their impact felt, them APC may capitalize on the problem of pension and salary arrears to sway voters. But the PDP government in the state may clear the arrears as the elections draw nearer because Governor Imoke may go all out to ensure that these issues are addressed.
The publicity machinery for both parties is poor even though the PDP is supposed to have upper hand. For the first time in the state, Journalists are not given the opportunity to interact with party leaders and governorship candidates at the end of each day’s tour or campaign. This time around no journalists was allowed embark to on campaign tours with the PDP campaign team. This has lead to serious communication gap. Primarily, workers may determine who wins the presidential and governorship elections. Even as salaries are being cleared, they need
to be addressed because it is likely that the opposition may win them over as March 28 draws nearer. The APC may not have money to clear the salary arrears, but their promises may sway some workers.

If PDP streamlines its campaign activities and its gubernatorial candidate is able to speak on the issue of salaries and pension, the workers are likely to be pacified. But if the backlog of three months’ salary currently owed Civil Servants in Cross River are not cleared, Jonathan may be struggling to secure victory in a state where he is supposed to win resoundingly.

Ubong Inyang is a Journalist and writes from Calabar.